The plot of a Silent Hill game is essentially a puzzle: The player and protagonist gradually discovers clues and realizes the truth through their own intelligence and investigation. However, in Silent Hill: Homecoming, Alex is given no hints of him being guilty. It is made clear that Josh may be dead, but not clues that Alex was responsible for it.
Alex had a flashback of the night Josh died, but as was seen with James Sunderland, it is known that Silent Hill is able to provide illusions and false memories. Silent Hill is a hellish place that torments people in a very personal way, so it is likely that the town provided false information to Alex because it would hurt him more than anything else.
From every other known interaction between Alex and Josh it was shown that Alex was a caring and devoted brother. For example, when Alex makes Josh feel better about his nightmares, and the tape of when Alex and Josh were playing together. Alex goes to greater lengths to try and save Josh than even his best friends or his mother. Alex bullying and intentionally scaring Josh contradicts this earlier characterization.
Perhaps the strongest evidence for Alex's innocence is how Pyramid Head acts towards him. It is known that Pyramid Head punishes those weighted down by great sin, even if the guilty person cannot remember their crime. Pyramid Head never lifts a finger against Alex. Pyramid Head kills Alex's father for his abusive parenting, but he never harms Alex. If Alex had been responsible for Josh's death because of his bullying, it does not make sense that Pyramid Head would not have a vendetta against Alex.
Similarities and contrasts with James' storyEdit
Silent Hill revealed to James that he killed his wife, Mary Sunderland. James also openly admitted to killing Mary. In contrast to this, Alex was still in disbelief of Josh's death, even when Silent Hill showed him it. If it is taken into account that Silent Hill is an individually tailored Hell, then it is likely that Silent Hill simply showed Alex the thing that would hurt him the most. This is consistent with James' story, as the town still showed James the most painful thing possible. Alex being shown that he is responsible for Josh's death is consistent with Silent Hill's punishment, even if the thing shown is a lie.
Josh's real deathEdit
It is still likely that Josh really did die by drowning. It is likely that Alex really was out on the lake with Josh, but so that they could have fun rather than to bully him. Josh likely drowned, even if it wasn't Alex's fault. As for why Josh is haunting Alex, it is likely that Josh blames Alex because Alex was supposed to be watching over him, even if it wasn't directly Alex's fault that Josh drowned.
It also likely that even if it is not truly his fault, Alex still blames himself for Josh's death. This would make it even easier for Silent Hill to lie to him and hurt him.
|Silent Hill: Homecoming|
|Alex Shepherd - Joshua Shepherd - Elle Holloway - James Wheeler - Margaret Holloway - Curtis Ackers|
|Adam Shepherd - Lillian Shepherd - Nora Holloway - Sam Bartlett - Joey Bartlett - Martin Fitch - Scarlet Fitch - Travis Grady - Robbie the Rabbit|
|Swarm - Nurse - Lurker - Feral - Smog - Needler - Schism - Siam - Bogeyman|
|Sepulcher - Scarlet - Asphyxia - Amnion|
|Items - Worlds & Dimensions - Religion|
|Questions - Audio - Reference Materials|